Pobreza e arrecadação tributária: uma análise de dados em painel para o período de 1999 a 2014

Abstract

This article analyzes the relationship between poverty and tax collection of direct and indirect taxes, federal and state, through a data panel with annual observations for the period 1999 to 2014 of the 27 federative units of Brazil. The developed methodology follows two steps, the first being an estimate of the Granger Causality test, between the variable number of poor people and the amounts of taxes collected. The second consists of estimating an econometric fixed and random effects model including regional dummies, setting the number of poor people as a dependent variable and tax collections as variables of interest, in addition to other control variables such as Years of Education, Gini, and Unemployment. Regarding the Granger test, the results showed a two-way relationship between ICMS and poverty. Regarding the econometric models, the results show a positive influence of tax collection on poverty reduction, mainly for the Northeast, Southeast and Midwest regions of the country.