O mercado de capitais e os ciclos econômicos: uma abordagem empírica da teoria austríaca

Abstract

Using data from the year 2009 until 2019, this article aims to ascertain the impact that cyclical and monetary macroeconomic variables have on the capital market, as well as, in addition to this, to verify if this repercussion effect empirically confirms some of the postulates of the Austrian theory of business cycles (ABCT). The econometric results (obtained through the Robust Least Squares) and statistical demonstrate that the monetary repercussion can not only generate cycles in the stock markets, but also suggest that there is a distortion in the efficient allocation of resources via the relative impact that the monetary variables cause in the results of the companies of the different companies production stages; it was found that the stages furthest from the end consumers are the ones that suffer the most impacts from a possible monetary policy.