Análise e previsão das emissões de CO2 provenientes dos Combustíveis do Setor de Transporte Rodoviário no Brasil 1990- 2020

Abstract

Energy consumption, in its various forms, is associated with the growth of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, CO2 being the main GHG affecting the earth's radioactive balance. Within the Brazilian road transport sector, gasoline, diesel oil and hydrated ethanol are the most consumed fuels. In this context, the objective of this research is to analyze the CO2 emissions of these three fuels from 1990 to 2020 and to make a forecast for the next five years (2021 to 2025). The data was collected from the website of the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), and the ARIMA time series model will be used to forecast the emissions. Furthermore, it will be calculated how many carbon credits could be generated by the consumption of ethanol. The results show that the CO2 emission, in 2020, from gasoline was 79233.85 GgCO2, from diesel was 149621.1 GgCO2, and from ethanol was 22106.69 GgCO2, which would be the equivalent to 22106690 carbon credits, and also found that the emissions, in 2025, from gasoline should decrease to 60436.7 GgCO2, from diesel should grow to 162727 GgCO2, and from ethanol should remain at 19923.4 GgCO2. Finally, we conclude that the country should seek to reduce non-renewable CO2 emissions since its elimination is not possible, since energy availability impacts on quality of life and economic competitiveness, and ethanol would be one of the paths, since it would reduce gasoline consumption.