Uma análise econométrica do impacto das taxas de juros sobre a pobreza no Brasil

Abstract

This work investigates the relationship between interest rate and poverty in Brazil, using a Data Panel with annual frequency, considering 27 States. The survey covers the period from 2002 to 2015 and the methodology is structured in two stages. At first, were applied the Granger Causality Test to the variables number of poor and interest rate. In the second, estimates are made based on an econometric model, taking the variable poverty as dependent and the variables interest income, education, Gini index, economic growth, and inflation rate as independent. The result of the Granger Test shows that there is in a single direction, a relationship from interest rate to number of poor people and the econometric estimate shows that there is a negative impact of interest rates on poverty in Brazil.