Estimativa de inteligência de segurança pública: uma expansão conceitual através de metodologias prospectivas

Abstract

This study aims to understand and expand the understanding of the public security intelligence estimation construction process, based on management methodologies and techniques, prospecting for futures and decision support. This is an exploratory research that used bibliographic research on concepts of public security intelligence, strategic planning, decision making, quantitative analysis tools, qualitative analysis, prospective scenarios and strategic interactions. Dozens of techniques and methodologies for future prospecting have been identified in the world, with wide application in countries such as the United States of America and France, from where most of the great authors emerged. In Brazil, still in a timid way, there is limited literature and authors in the area, with preponderance of application of the tools by National Defense agencies and few state-owned companies. The conclusions point out that there is no definition of methodology for achieving the production of intelligence knowledge "Estimation", since the definition of the set of techniques and prospecting methods to be used are closely linked to the object of study, considering their specificities . The extrapolation of the concepts studied in this research can provide consistent answers to complex problems and that the strategic planning added to a correct view of possible futures, with the use of intelligence analysis based on prospective techniques and methodologies, is a powerful tool for the construction of a better future.